Tourism Economics – San Diego County Hotel Lodging Forecast – October 2020 Update
- Overall, the lodging forecast improved compared to the July 2020 forecast due to stronger than expected leisure demand, especially after Labor Day Weekend.
- Strong leisure demand continued into October, with weekends continuing to average in the 80 percent range in many areas of the County.
- However, with no known date as to when meetings—even small ones—can begin, the meetings demand was further reduced in the October forecast.
- Hotel demand from meetings was pushed out another month from March 2021 to April 2021, and reduced to lower levels.
- The July forecast estimated group meetings demand in 2021 Q2 to be down 24% compared to 2019, whereas the October forecast has taken it down to 54% of 2019 levels.
- Hotel Room demand for 2020 is now forecasted to reach 10.7 million rooms sold compared to 10 million in the July forecast. Occupancy is forecasted to average 49.3% and the average daily rate $129.15.
- The forecast through next summer relies almost solely on leisure demand, additional essential business travel continuing in the market, and hope that some meetings can begin in spring/summer 2021.